The Future of the Professions: How Technology Will Transform the Work of Human Experts, Updated Edition
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- Create Date：2021-10-15 07:15:55
- Update Date：2025-09-24
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- Author：Richard Susskind
- ISBN：0198841892
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Summary
This book predicts the decline of today's professions and introduces the people and systems that will replace them。 In an internet-enhanced society， according to Richard Susskind and Daniel Susskind， we will neither need nor want doctors， teachers， accountants， architects， the clergy， consultants， lawyers， and many others， to work as they did in the 20th century。
The Future of the Professions explains how increasingly capable technologies - from telepresence to artificial intelligence - will place the 'practical expertise' of the finest specialists at the fingertips of everyone， often at no or low cost and without face-to-face interaction。
The authors challenge the 'grand bargain' - the arrangement that grants various monopolies to today's professionals。 They argue that our current professions are antiquated， opaque and no longer affordable， and that the expertise of their best is enjoyed only by a few。 In their place， they propose five new models for producing and distributing expertise in society。
The book raises profound policy issues， not least about employment （they envisage a new generation of 'open-collared workers'） and about control over online expertise （they warn of new 'gatekeepers'） - in an era when machines become more capable than human beings at most tasks。
With a new preface exploring recent critical developments， this updated edition builds on the authors' groundbreaking research into more than a dozen professions。 Illustrated with numerous examples from each， this is the first book to assess and question the relevance of the professions in the 21st century。
The Future of the Professions explains how increasingly capable technologies - from telepresence to artificial intelligence - will place the 'practical expertise' of the finest specialists at the fingertips of everyone， often at no or low cost and without face-to-face interaction。
The authors challenge the 'grand bargain' - the arrangement that grants various monopolies to today's professionals。 They argue that our current professions are antiquated， opaque and no longer affordable， and that the expertise of their best is enjoyed only by a few。 In their place， they propose five new models for producing and distributing expertise in society。
The book raises profound policy issues， not least about employment （they envisage a new generation of 'open-collared workers'） and about control over online expertise （they warn of new 'gatekeepers'） - in an era when machines become more capable than human beings at most tasks。
With a new preface exploring recent critical developments， this updated edition builds on the authors' groundbreaking research into more than a dozen professions。 Illustrated with numerous examples from each， this is the first book to assess and question the relevance of the professions in the 21st century。
Reviews
Philip Mlonyeni
，
Teknooptimisme for Oxfordfuckboys
Joe Higgs
，
Listening to this and realising it was written 10 years ago has forced me to revisit my original 3* review。 They predicted and got quite a few things spot on and things are increasingly changing。 As a teacher， I still take issue with how a lot of people simplify teaching to the use of Khan Academy and online platforms。 There are still a lot of things robots and technology are unable to do that teachers can。 I do believe that while technology will improve the potential and lighten the workload of Listening to this and realising it was written 10 years ago has forced me to revisit my original 3* review。 They predicted and got quite a few things spot on and things are increasingly changing。 As a teacher， I still take issue with how a lot of people simplify teaching to the use of Khan Academy and online platforms。 There are still a lot of things robots and technology are unable to do that teachers can。 I do believe that while technology will improve the potential and lighten the workload of teachers， I firmly believe there will always be a place for schools and human leadership of them， even if staffing numbers are reduced and the system made more efficient。 。。。more
Ghengis
，
I listened to this as an audiobook。 There is considerable repetition of the key ideas between chapters， I assume to accommodate people who read selected chapters rather than the whole book from start to finish， but this repetition can get annoying。 The key ideas are solid: the only question will be how quickly they are implemented。 Covid has perhaps speeded up the process。 The book strikes a rather depressing tone， and perhaps fails to identify the number of new jobs created instead focusing on I listened to this as an audiobook。 There is considerable repetition of the key ideas between chapters， I assume to accommodate people who read selected chapters rather than the whole book from start to finish， but this repetition can get annoying。 The key ideas are solid: the only question will be how quickly they are implemented。 Covid has perhaps speeded up the process。 The book strikes a rather depressing tone， and perhaps fails to identify the number of new jobs created instead focusing on the jobs destroyed by the digital revolution。 。。。more
Rob Tring
，
Great summary of the history of the professions and insightful predictions for the future。 Interested to read a follow up to this book （it was published in 2016）。
Chris Moorhead
，
Very detailed account of the possibilities of the near and far future replacement of professional labour by machines and AI。 Definitely food for thought and worth pouring back over to contemplate。 The book is， as most things with AI， slightly out of dare after not so many years， but the case studies are very solid。 A must read for people who want to understand the path of society during the slow revolution of AI。
Thomas Devlin
，
Interesting enough but certainly not groundbreaking。 The most interesting idea they talk about is how the internet is breaking down the monopolisation of knowledge by professionals， but the discussion on automation doesn’t add much to the existing debate。
Adrian
，
A decent overview of how changes in technology will lead to evolutions in the professions， specifically medicine， education， law and consulting。tOne who follows modern publications such as The Economist may be very familiar with the evolving nature of techological transformations， but the strength of this book is the depth and broad-ranging nature of the coverage。tAs this is familiar to this reader， the book could seem a little too elaborative at times， but can serve as a decent refresher on a v A decent overview of how changes in technology will lead to evolutions in the professions， specifically medicine， education， law and consulting。tOne who follows modern publications such as The Economist may be very familiar with the evolving nature of techological transformations， but the strength of this book is the depth and broad-ranging nature of the coverage。tAs this is familiar to this reader， the book could seem a little too elaborative at times， but can serve as a decent refresher on a very important subject。 。。。more
Alex
，
Academic book with a well-developed argument and very though-provoking ideas。 It gets very repetitive from about halfway through and I think its so much so that it detracts from the argument。 I do understand though that the authors feel the need to defend their argument given the gravity of it。
Andréa
，
Note: I received a digital review copy of this book from the publisher through NetGalley。
Daniel M20 Blackburn
，
Great content， so detailed in the analysis of important questions。 Thoroughly enjoyed reading this and I am highly recommending it。
Vlad Ionut
，
It is a good book。 It treats an obvious topic in an academic style。
Anwar Maricar
，
The world of traditional professions are changed for-ever by the advent of the Artificial Inteligence （AI）。 This covid-19 pandemic is proof that machine learning and robotics are in play all over the world。
Clare Russell
，
I found the premise of this interesting and am fascinated by the automation/transformation dichotomy。 Clearly the impact of technology will have far reaching impacts on working lives。 Some of their critiques of professional groups were well made。 However I found the concept of ‘commons’ idealistic。 We are currently living through an age of disinformation with little distinction between true/quality and false information。 Now more than ever we need the distinction that professional approaches to I found the premise of this interesting and am fascinated by the automation/transformation dichotomy。 Clearly the impact of technology will have far reaching impacts on working lives。 Some of their critiques of professional groups were well made。 However I found the concept of ‘commons’ idealistic。 We are currently living through an age of disinformation with little distinction between true/quality and false information。 Now more than ever we need the distinction that professional approaches to information brings 。。。more
Charlie
，
I enjoyed Tomorrow’s Lawyers by this author， but frankly I did not enjoy this book - it's a perfect example of a book with too broad of a scope， resulting in laundry lists of ideas in place of substantive details。 Regarding the actual argument， I accept that tech is going to change how work will look in the coming decades， but the authors fail to adequately consider two key challenges to this trend: 1） the influence of incumbent， monied interests and 2） the risks and downsides of technology。 The I enjoyed Tomorrow’s Lawyers by this author， but frankly I did not enjoy this book - it's a perfect example of a book with too broad of a scope， resulting in laundry lists of ideas in place of substantive details。 Regarding the actual argument， I accept that tech is going to change how work will look in the coming decades， but the authors fail to adequately consider two key challenges to this trend: 1） the influence of incumbent， monied interests and 2） the risks and downsides of technology。 The only path I see to tech actually replacing people in the workplace （as the authors argue） is if AI becomes smarter than humanity and starts to compete with us。 And if （when？） that happens， I think we’ll have much bigger problems on our hands than losing a few law and medicine jobs。 。。。more
Miky
，
If I could be more specific on rating， I would give this book 2 stars and a half。 The ideas described were thought-provoking， however， the writing style wasn't the most engaging one。 Still， there were some interesting examples of technologies that replaced human activity and I have made a list o websites and resources that I would like to check out further。 If I could be more specific on rating， I would give this book 2 stars and a half。 The ideas described were thought-provoking， however， the writing style wasn't the most engaging one。 Still， there were some interesting examples of technologies that replaced human activity and I have made a list o websites and resources that I would like to check out further。 。。。more
Sam
，
The Future Of the Professions was marketed as a casual non-fiction read。 What I found instead was a text-book of sorts; thick and dense as it was。 It didn't make reading it any less insightful。 But it soon became a chore unpacking the implications of the events and changes described therein。I truly believe it would have been difficult making the sort of predictions the father-son pair made while achieving even the slightest bit of accuracy。 And yet， they did。 In large part by observing the impac The Future Of the Professions was marketed as a casual non-fiction read。 What I found instead was a text-book of sorts; thick and dense as it was。 It didn't make reading it any less insightful。 But it soon became a chore unpacking the implications of the events and changes described therein。I truly believe it would have been difficult making the sort of predictions the father-son pair made while achieving even the slightest bit of accuracy。 And yet， they did。 In large part by observing the impacts of technology at that time （2015） and somewhat guessing （rather deductively） what path the future would take。 I wouldn't believe it fair to not remark on the vast research （as evidenced by the bibliography） they undertook to arrive at their conclusions and so believe it worthwhile mentioning this。 They were indeed thorough。The book seems to be divided into two parts: The beginning and everything else。 The first introductory aspects of the book （at least in my opinion） felt wildly contradictory， if not incoherent。 There was also an obvious lack of voice。 All this may have been the price paid for writing a book with two authors while trying its best to maintain some aspect of technical and logical rigor。Despite all this， I found it wildly informative。 The premise of the book "that technology would destabilize， decentralize， and liberalize the professions" was something I already believed to be true。 The arguments would strike me as valid while the motivations behind the arguments would strike me as somewhat self-serving。 It often felt like I was reading two lobbyists appeal to a government。 I would sometimes delve in to see the motivations behind their arguments and end up with nothing more than supply-sided arguments based on the merits of efficiency for businesses and great products for the consumers。 As we're all currently undergoing a pandemic， and technologies like Remote Working have taken off， I'm also very aware of the fact that the inevitability through incrementalism described in the book was largely wrong。 As if overnight， we see nations like the US have close to half its workers working from home。 The one flaw in their argument then was the belief that technological adoption would come about due to efficiency。 It largely removed the role of society and hence crisis in influencing the path technology would take and instead relegated any sort of change taking place through the unidirectional lense of business/market to society。This book as such serves as a great point of reference for questions about the future of work， but not necessarily as an intriguing read that would at least have made the content of the book much more enjoyable to digest。 。。。more
Nikita Umov
，
Huvitav raamat， mis kirjeldab seda， kuidas on võimalik profesionaalse teenuse （arst， jurist， haridus jne） kättesaadavust suurendada。 Seda peamiselt selle läbi， et muutub informatsiooni， teadmiste （nn practical expertise edastuse viis。 Kõike ei ole vaja edastada profesionaali poolt （kogenud arsti või õpetaja） poolt näost-näkku。 Informatsiooni võib edastada ka para-professional， kelle käsutuses olevad infotehnoloogilised lahendused ning olemasoleva kogemuse baasil võimaldab osutada samatasemelist Huvitav raamat， mis kirjeldab seda， kuidas on võimalik profesionaalse teenuse （arst， jurist， haridus jne） kättesaadavust suurendada。 Seda peamiselt selle läbi， et muutub informatsiooni， teadmiste （nn practical expertise edastuse viis。 Kõike ei ole vaja edastada profesionaali poolt （kogenud arsti või õpetaja） poolt näost-näkku。 Informatsiooni võib edastada ka para-professional， kelle käsutuses olevad infotehnoloogilised lahendused ning olemasoleva kogemuse baasil võimaldab osutada samatasemelist teenust nagu profesionaal。 Suure osa tööst on võimalik automatiseerida。 Eesti kontekstis ei muretse me tuludeklaratsiooni esitamise pärast üldse， sest enamus tööst on meie eest ära tehtud。 Kõige huvitavam koht on see， mil me jõuame aega， kus me suudame ennetada， mitte reageerida õnnetustele。 Arsti vaatevinklist võib olla "äge" südameinfarkti ravi - saab südameveresooni avada， patsient on intensiivis jne。 Mis siis， kui elaksime maailmas， kus haiglaid ei ole vaja？ 。。。more
Ray LaManna
，
This book left me inspired AND upset sometimes at the same time。 While the authors outlined in great detail some of the ways in which the professions will change in the coming decades， primarily through increased computing power and AI capabilities， I was turned off by their arrogance that， in the future， we will have almost no need of professionals。In their mind machines and paraprofessionals will take the place of highly skilled professionals and at little or no cost。 Rather arrogant I would s This book left me inspired AND upset sometimes at the same time。 While the authors outlined in great detail some of the ways in which the professions will change in the coming decades， primarily through increased computing power and AI capabilities， I was turned off by their arrogance that， in the future， we will have almost no need of professionals。In their mind machines and paraprofessionals will take the place of highly skilled professionals and at little or no cost。 Rather arrogant I would say。 Who will do the ongoing research to improve on our store of knowledge--machines solely？ I don't believe it。 These authors are rather flippant about how beside the point professionals in almost all fields will be。 I don't buy it。。。while I firmly believe that AI will take over many tasks， we humans will have much to add to this world。 。。。more
Katarzyna Piaskowy
，
Disapointed
Jonny Brick
，
A lifetime's work distilled into a book by Prof Susskind， whose son Daniel is in the family business。 I now know what a para-professional is。 Daniel's new book A World Without Work may be the Book of the Year。 This is a good journey into the problems the professions - law， consultancy， teaching - now face。 A lifetime's work distilled into a book by Prof Susskind， whose son Daniel is in the family business。 I now know what a para-professional is。 Daniel's new book A World Without Work may be the Book of the Year。 This is a good journey into the problems the professions - law， consultancy， teaching - now face。 。。。more
gaverne Bennett
，
This is one of the greatest books of the early twenty-first century。 YOU MUST READ。。。
N。Muralidharan
，
The author has provided lot of details on how some of the professions have emerged and taking clue from that has tried to project how future of professions are likely to be。 While some of the views are interesting and I also agree that machines will automate some tasks that humans do， the author is not very convincing to state that this will radically change in decades to come。 While no one can project what happens in decades， keeping a clue of how we are in 2020 （when I read this book） to 2016 The author has provided lot of details on how some of the professions have emerged and taking clue from that has tried to project how future of professions are likely to be。 While some of the views are interesting and I also agree that machines will automate some tasks that humans do， the author is not very convincing to state that this will radically change in decades to come。 While no one can project what happens in decades， keeping a clue of how we are in 2020 （when I read this book） to 2016 when the book was written and the book expected few things to happen by 2020， the changes are happening in snail pace。 One important aspect that the author has not considered is that the service recipient is equally slow to adopt to changes （status quo bias） and this will derail the process of adoption on machine led delivery to larger public。 Having said this， over all the book is a brave attempt to look at future and look back at what each professional has to do to realign themself for the changes expected。 。。。more
William O'Hanley
，
breathless and techno-utopian
Kevin Mccormick
，
Total skim-fest。 After getting through the interesting but very dense initial few chapters， I started to realize that the central points were just being repeated over and over， except with slightly more detail on each repeat。 Jumped to the last chapter to confirm that， yep， central points were still being repeated。This book works very hard to convince a certain breed of professionals who oppose， or can’t imagine technology drastically encroaching on huge moats built in these industries。 The meth Total skim-fest。 After getting through the interesting but very dense initial few chapters， I started to realize that the central points were just being repeated over and over， except with slightly more detail on each repeat。 Jumped to the last chapter to confirm that， yep， central points were still being repeated。This book works very hard to convince a certain breed of professionals who oppose， or can’t imagine technology drastically encroaching on huge moats built in these industries。 The method of reasoning employed is super thorough， structured， and well-researched。 If you’re not in this population， however， then this book will neither be enlightening nor convincing。 Especially if you are already convinced of the ability for even long-standing lines of work to be radically changed by technology， or any other reason for that matter。 So I guess this book just wasn’t for me。 。。。more
Marks54
，
The two authors of this book are a father-son combination。 Richard Susskind is a technology scholar and Daniel， his son， is an economist。 Their prior work has concerned the influence of technological innovation on the legal profession。 The current book， published in 2015 （and due to be updated later this year） expands their insights gained from the legal profession to a broader look at the impact of technology on “the professions” more broadly。To understand the analytic path， note that while the The two authors of this book are a father-son combination。 Richard Susskind is a technology scholar and Daniel， his son， is an economist。 Their prior work has concerned the influence of technological innovation on the legal profession。 The current book， published in 2015 （and due to be updated later this year） expands their insights gained from the legal profession to a broader look at the impact of technology on “the professions” more broadly。To understand the analytic path， note that while there is a huge research literature in many disciplines on the professions， there is also a potential for some confusion， since that someone is a “professional” is a different statement from calling some set of firms and individuals and government agencies as related to a particular “profession”。 Other observers of this book have made a similar point。 The focus of the book is largely， I think， on professions rather than professionals， although there are discussions of both。An additional point to note is that all the work in a profession （or performed by a professional） is not the same。 Rather， it is useful to distinguish between particular jobs and the different tasks that comprise them and that in summary constitute what professionals do。 So if we are analyzing the effects of technological change on professions and professionals， then one should recognize that different tasks will be affected in different ways to to different degrees by new technology。 Then， the problem becomes who should do what， how should the technologically changed tasks be reorganized， and who should be engaged to perform which tasks。 This opens the ways for new professions， paraprofessionals， various “extender” jobs， and other sorts of assistants。 In addition， technology may make it possible for consumers to perform tasks that had previously been performed by professionals in the old days。So what is the future of the professions？ It is complex。 In the short term， or longer， professions are likely to remain， but more people will be able to get more access to professional services。 The advent of new technology will likely be an improvement for consumers and even for the professionals who remain。 What else will change？ It is hard to summarize but the picture presented makes sense and is even plausible given what we already know about how technology can change people’s lives。I expected more from the book。 If one has kept pace with the popular literature （and some scholarly literature on the professions） there is not much new here， but it is useful to have it all assembled with an editorial direction。 The tone and direction errs in the direction of technological optimism with a bit of “gee whiz” from time to time。 But the authors are on target and know what they are doing。 I grew up in a world where much extra money could be earned as a paralegal in large prestigious firms and that world has completely changed。 Now the prospect of attending law school is far from a sure bet for future prosperity。 The developments tracked in other professions （consulting and auditing， for example） seem reasonably up to date， although I did not see many lots of insights。 The authors are aware of the prospects of “big data” and related developments。The book is longer than it needs to be。 Little sub-arguments are thrown in whether or not they have been already covered and one gets the sense of too much repetition。 Again， the book is being updated and I am glad the authors are doing that。 I hope the new expanded version is even better。 。。。more
YHC
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https://book。douban。com/review/10136410/大交易是什么大交易实际上将专业人士定位成了守门人——他们拥有大量的知识、经验、专业技能，构成了人类社会和经济活动的基础。这是一笔有着重大意义的交易，整个社会都仰仗着这笔交易正常运作；这也是一种昂贵的制度安排——举例来说，想一想整个国家的医疗服务、教育系统、税务机构以及诉讼机构的总成本。令人不安的问题这些专业机构有着六大问题：经济、技术、心理、道德、服务质量及其不可解读性。这些缺陷共同存在，随着时间的推移，越来越成为问题。这些问题理应提醒我们重新修订大交易的条款，在专业机构、国家和社会之间重新寻求新的平衡。首先，即经济问题。大多数个人和机构无法承担一流专业人士的收费标准；大多数经济体都挣扎着维持支付他们的专业服务，包括教育、诉讼系统以及健康服务。只有富人或者购买了足够保险的人群才能够负担得起最高级的专业人士的服务，包括医生、律师、会计师以及管理咨询师。在许多专业领域中，专业知识通常被看成是一种稀缺资源。专业知识本身的供给并不存在问题，而是能够出现在现场并提供服务的专家数量有限。真正的局限性在于目前组织和交付专 https://book。douban。com/review/10136410/大交易是什么大交易实际上将专业人士定位成了守门人——他们拥有大量的知识、经验、专业技能，构成了人类社会和经济活动的基础。这是一笔有着重大意义的交易，整个社会都仰仗着这笔交易正常运作；这也是一种昂贵的制度安排——举例来说，想一想整个国家的医疗服务、教育系统、税务机构以及诉讼机构的总成本。令人不安的问题这些专业机构有着六大问题：经济、技术、心理、道德、服务质量及其不可解读性。这些缺陷共同存在，随着时间的推移，越来越成为问题。这些问题理应提醒我们重新修订大交易的条款，在专业机构、国家和社会之间重新寻求新的平衡。首先，即经济问题。大多数个人和机构无法承担一流专业人士的收费标准；大多数经济体都挣扎着维持支付他们的专业服务，包括教育、诉讼系统以及健康服务。只有富人或者购买了足够保险的人群才能够负担得起最高级的专业人士的服务，包括医生、律师、会计师以及管理咨询师。在许多专业领域中，专业知识通常被看成是一种稀缺资源。专业知识本身的供给并不存在问题，而是能够出现在现场并提供服务的专家数量有限。真正的局限性在于目前组织和交付专业服务的方法，通常需要专家亲临现场，进行面对面的互动。即使对于世界上规模最大的机构来说，专业服务的价格也被认为是过分昂贵的。许多首席执行官和首席财务官都坚信在专业服务上的花销（特别是法律、税务以及咨询）应当被大幅削减。经济问题其实并不是关于专业机构所提供的服务质量的担忧，它其实是负担能力问题。专家技能没有得到平均分配，这是一种不平等：我们为人类的专业知识搭建了辉煌宫殿，却只有极少数人得到允许，可以进入宫殿。至今为止，专业工作相关的知识都储存在专业人士的头脑里、书籍里、档案柜里，以及这些机构所制定的标准和系统之中。然而这和技术互联网社会中大多数信息和知识的传播方式并不一致。大交易的第三个缺陷在于心理因素。不让人们了解自己的问题，阻止他们参与解决的过程，会使人丧气。在技术互联网社会中，有许多创造和分享知识的新方式，使专业知识变得负担得起、易于获得，而且启用不同方法的益处将远大于坏处。第五个问题在于专业人士的表现并不合格各行各业正在发生的改变—医疗“远程医疗”应用也越来越广泛，这种做法使用互联网视频连接，用以开展远距离医疗工作。远程手术技术也正在快速发展，通过高级机器人的协助，身处美国的外科医生团队可以取出一个身在法国，距离6000公里以外的女病人的胆囊。谷歌和欧洲的诺华制药公司（Novartis）联手开发了一种“智能隐形眼镜”来监测血糖水平，替代了原先需要戳破手指提取血样的方式一个EyeNetra智能手机外接设备的成本大概只有几美金，其功能是一个可移动的眼部测试器件，功效和我们所熟悉的几千美金一台的验光设备一样。诺贝尔奖得主理查德·费曼七十年前曾预言过我们有一天可能会“吞下外科医生”，这一预言已经成真——已经有微小的纳米机器人能够在我们体内游动、拍摄体内图片、运送药物、精准定向攻击特定的细胞，这些才能让最高明的外科医生都自叹不如。引自第1页各行各业正在发生的改变—教育一个普通学生如果接受一对一辅导，他将来的表现可能超越98%去普通课堂接受教育的普通学生在《与大数据同行：学习和教育的未来》这本书里，作者描述了传统教育中所使用的为数不多的数据点——测验成绩、报告卡片、出勤记录等——在庞大得多、精彩得多的数据集面前是如何黯然失色的。丰富的数据被收集起来，从学生点击了屏幕哪个位置，到学生回答一个问题花了多长时间。而且成千上万个学生的信息都可以被收集、存储起来。一门新的学科——“学习分析”，正在试图解读收集到的这些信息。传统意义上的教师、家庭教师、讲师都面临着挑战。社会不再那么需要“讲台上的圣人”，更为需要“身边的向导”各行各业正在发生的改变—法律大的律师事务所正在成立新的劳务部门来应对成本压力。律师们把法律工作分解成更加基础的任务，寻找替代性方案来完成那些更加日常和重复性的工作，比如说法律文件审阅、尽职调查、日常性的合同起草，以及基础的法律研究。这样一来，有些法律事务被外包甚至离岸外包，交给律师助理，打散分包，然后向客户收取固定价格。在众多系统中有一个重要类别，它们的主要功能是系统化地生成法律文件。这些“文件汇编系统”通过和用户进行简单互动沟通后，能够自动起草生成高质量的文件。大数据技术为系统提供支撑，此类系统能够比诉讼专家更精确地预测庭审判决的结果。法庭也开始受到根本性的挑战。法律专家开始质疑法院所提供的到底是一种服务还是一个场所；产生纠纷的人和机构是否真的需要集结到一个实体法庭上来解决他们的纷争。一个替代性选项就是虚拟法庭。这种形式已经用在从容易受到攻击的证人身上采集证据或者为刑事案件进行预审，它的形式和传统的法庭没什么两样——律师、涉案各方或者证人——通过某种形式的视频接入出席。各行各业正在发生的改变—管理咨询2013年，克莱顿·克里斯坦森在《哈佛商业评论》上发表了一篇文章，谈论“处在被颠覆的风口浪尖的咨询行业”，文中说，咨询行业的变化是“不可避免的”，那些以前帮助别人管理困境的人“即将被颠覆”。“50年以后，类似麦肯锡这样的管理咨询公司将不复存在”以前他们公司可能花费了高达80%的时间来进行信息收集。数字化的流程意味着相比聘用顾问花时间手工统计人数、监控存货、处理各种数据表和数据库，客户将更加愿意自行收集基本的内部数据。调整相关设定后，IBM的沃森计算机也可以扮演“企业高管顾问”的角色——它扫描各种战略文档，学习消化会议内容，并且针对不同问题根据它的观点提供分析性的建议——比如说，对于给出可供投资的公司的建议。Kensho是高盛投资的一个系统，可以用简明语言回答本来需要大量人工调研的金融问题（例如，如果发生隐私信息恐慌，技术类股票会如何表现等）。各行各业正在发生的改变—税务与审计在意大利，税务机构使用“Redditometro”系统，搜索已有的数据，估算某一个特定的纳税人在某一年度可能的开支——如果估算结果比纳税人在申报单上所填的要高出20%以上，他们就会要求纳税人做出解释。在计算机时代，只有1%的税务工作者是安全的。在他们所审阅的700种职业之中，税务工作被认为是十大“风险最高”的职业之一。目前全球每年有61亿小时被用于税务申报工作，相当于300万个全职工作岗位，因此发生的变化将非常巨大。各行各业正在发生的改变—建筑新技术还创造了新的可能性：可以用三维模拟来进行演示、探讨方案、分解方案、重新组合、颠倒上下、放大缩小，并且可以采用不同的形状和结构来进行无数实验。当项目变得数字化、更加易于分享之后，建筑项目也变得更容易利用各种不同背景的专业人才——建筑师、结构工程师、机械顾问、电力顾问、设计师、承包商、供应商——每个人都有各自的工作模式，收集自己所需要的数据，关注建筑的不同方面。这改变了以前建筑师掌管项目，统筹每项任务的局面。人们不再需要依赖手工绘图或者CAD草图，这些在线的BIM平台可以把各路人士在同一个项目上互不相干的工作成果整合到一起，组合成一个巨大的、共享的虚拟模型。另外还有可以解决非常特定设计问题的其他CAD系统，例如Ply Gem的Designed Exterior是一个免费的平台，它帮助用户完成房屋的外部设计（窗户、护墙板、排水系统等）;TimberTech的Deck Designer是另一个免费平台，帮助人们设计户外地板，还有许多仅针对厨房、浴室、书架设计等的设计平台。把这些系统结合在一起，使得人们很有可能像斯蒂芬·库鲁兹（Steven Kurutz）在《纽约时报》里写的那样，“完全跳过建筑师”。传统建筑通过手工制作混凝土浇筑使用的模具来得到砖块，这一制造环节构成了混凝土建筑成本的60%。现在，Gramazio & Kohler公司的Mesh-Mould使用一个机器臂，前端装有一个小的3D打印喷头，可以在建设过程中直接“打印”混凝土砖块。此外，还有一些其他机器人能够完成涂油漆、浇注、打磨、焊接等工作。2014年，哈佛大学的工程师建造了由1000个机器人组成的群体，它们不需要人为干预，能够通过自行组织，组成一些复杂的二维构造（类似于一群鱼或者一队蚂蚁）。一个时代的终结20世纪90年代后期，互联网泡沫盛行之际，人们常说一个“互联网元年”里所发生的明显变化的速度和氛围相当于传统行业在7个普通年度的变化。人工智能给人来带来的影响这一章里，专注于探究并回应那些最重大的反对意见和焦虑情绪。八大疑问：第一，人们担忧将失去值得信赖的机构——没有这些专业机构，我们要如何保护自己免受冒牌专家的欺骗？第二，专业机构所拥有的道德品质将不复存在——如果所有专业领域都得到解放，我们能否安心让市场和市场价值观占据主导地位？第三，人们将失去那些老式的行事方式——我们是否需要保护传统的专业技能和手艺？第四，人们为无法当面接触而感到不自在——保留面对面互动是否重要？第五，同理心——机器如何与用户产生共鸣？第六，所剩下的工作将是什么样的——未来是否还存在有意义的、能让人实现抱负的工作？第七，引入新的模式会让正在学习的专家们无所适从——当机器已经在执行本属于他们的日常工作，他们要如何继续成长下去呢？第八，未来的角色——未来的专业人士能干什么，我们要把他们往什么方向培养？关于信任、可靠、准信任在教育领域，学生信赖可汗学院这样的在线平台，即使这里许多知名的老师都没有经过任何认证；在新闻领域，享有盛誉的作者在社交媒体上拥有大量信任他们的粉丝（在推特上获得蓝标认证），但他们不需要加入任何报业集团；在税务方面，人们信赖并使用税务申报软件TurboTax，即便他们从未和注册会计师面对面坐下来，一起研究他们的特定税务问题。这种新的信任关系已经在专业领域发展起来，并且在各个领域不断自我复制着。关于技艺失传哲学家朱立安·巴吉尼研究过一种类似的担忧，传统咖啡冲泡技艺正在逐步失传。历史上，咖啡师的工作是相当花费人工的——打开口袋，咖啡豆柔软的、芬芳的味道扑鼻而来，磨豆机一圈圈地工作，压粉锤轻柔地接触，机器咕噜噜地沸腾，最后把咖啡慢慢倒到杯子里。过去的几年里自动化胶囊咖啡的普及相当迅速。咖啡冲泡的过程被简化成。咖啡冲泡过程中所有的变量，从温度到水流，到咖啡颗粒的粗细程度，都可以通过实验和研究提前进行优化并固定下来。成果就是足以媲美盲测中顶尖水平且品质始终如一的咖啡。我们本当重视这些人类的技艺，但是当世界上这么多人都还享受不到法律建议、像样的教育甚至基础医疗，这种对于技艺的偏好（通常出于怀旧）就显得不那么迫切了。我们还处在满足温饱需求阶段，无视成果而选择保护技艺在目前看来是一种无力负担的奢侈同理心许多专业人士坚持认为人际互动是他们日常工作的核心——疾病缠身的患者、遇上麻烦的客户、心烦意乱的学生、身处困境的生意人，都至少应该有人和他们进行面对面的接触。这不仅是为了帮助他们找到值得信任的顾问，同样重要的是，具有同理心的专家更容易去理解客户的情绪状态——甚至能感受并分享对方的痛苦和快乐。令人遗憾的情况是，实际上，许多专家其实非常缺乏同理心。有时候他们甚至需要传达坏消息——疾病无法治愈、大笔税金到期、学生不幸留级、宠物无法救治、责任无法避免同理心观点的另一个问题在于有证据表明有时人们更希望和机器打交道，而不是直接和同类接触，尤其是涉及敏感或尴尬问题的情况下。成为专家——我们要把年轻人培养成什么样？如果专业工作中的工匠手艺已经开始淡出历史舞台，将来由各种专业人士助理、知识工程、经验社区、嵌入式知识、机器生成的经验取而代之，那么有一个重要问题必须得到解答——我们在把这些年轻的生力军培养成什么样？我们担心的是，目前这些精心设计、复杂精细的培训方法和机构都在以20世纪专业人士为模板去培养新人，并没有把技术互联网时代的各种特征，比如在线形式会主导服务领域、日益强大的机器将开始取代人类完成复杂工作等考虑在内。不仅仅是年轻人所接受的培训可能是不对的，更糟糕的是政策制定机构根本没有意识到这个问题。这些政策制定者大体上都属于老一代，他们通常对根本性的变革持怀疑态度，但又同时负责制定教育政策。找不到未来的社会角色我们可以开始尝试性地描述，在后专业时代里人类的角色、应当承担的任务和活动。我们把它们总结为12种未来的“角色”。手艺人助手专业人士助理同理心提供方研发人员知识工程师流程分析师网站管理员设计师系统提供方数据科学家系统工程师技术对专业工作的影响我们预计过些时间——专业工作领域的确将发生技术性失业。人类占据优势的那些专业任务类型将会面临增长率不足的问题，因此无法保证多数专业人士能够得到全面就业。我们无法为这三个问题提供确切答案，因此，我们不能预测那时的失业问题的规模。但是当我们把本书中的研究所得都考虑进来，有三大理由让我们确信失业确实是大势所趋。理由一，机器变得能干的趋势将持续下去，它们会逐步缩小自己在人类具备优势的那些项目上的差距；理由二，专业人士无法依赖新需求或者潜在需求为他们创造就业，因为机器往往能够更好、更高效地去执行这些新任务；理由三，尽管根据我们的设想，有些任务需要进行道德判断、承担道德责任，而这些任务都必须由人类来完成，但我们并不认为这些任务的数量能够大到维持目前的专业人士就业规模。最能干、最聪明的专业人士才能坚持到最后——他们能够执行那些不能也不应该由机器执行的任务，以及那些我们主动选择留在人类手中的任务。但所有这些加在一起，都不足以把赚钱轻松的专业人士维持在目前的人数水平上。我们预测，专业工作在未来几年里将逐渐消失，但所有这些转型都是逐步发生的，并不是一蹴而就的。与此同时，还有另一件事值得一提。当我们评价一部机器在执行某种任务时具备优势，我们并不仅仅在表扬它具有更高的生产力，它能够利用更少的投入实现更多产出。我们同时也在评价使用机器或人类的相对成本——使用成本有多昂贵。用经济学语言来看问题，我们必须同时考虑量（生产力水平）和价（成本）。今天，许多技术的生产力都特别高，但它们也都十分昂贵，也就是说，启用它们的时机还没到来。可行性问题“公共资源”，还有其他潜在问题。实践经验的所有权和控制权不再属于少数几个大机构了（比如说，专业机构、公司、政府），而变成了由所有参与者共享。公共资源这种方式可能会引发公众提出三个关于可行性的担忧。第一种是最基本的——究竟为什么会有个人和机构心甘情愿放弃他们对于价值连城的实践经验的所有权和控制权，情愿把它们变成公共资源分享给大家呢，按照之前提到过的理由，难道他们不希望保留排他性权利吗，这样不就等于放弃了自己盈利的机会吗？第二种疑虑是担心一旦变成公共资源，实践经验可能被滥用。生态学者格伦特·哈丁，把这种现象称为“公地悲剧”。我们能预料到一旦实践经验成了公共资源，大量只顾着自己利益的用户就会过度使用。第三种情况是担心实践经验成为公共资源后，其相关的创造活动就会变得不足。当一个机构拥有、控制实践经验时，其维护成本和更新迭代责任也就清楚地落在了他们身上。这是大交易的辩护理由之一，但是当公共资源的所有权和控制权都更加分散，应当由谁来承担这些成本？直觉上可以认为这些费用应当由所有拥有者共同承担。但这本身就提出了一个问题：当人们发现不参与承担费用也并不会使得他们被剥夺公共资源权利时，毕竟不付钱，也不影响他们使用实践经验并从中受益。但是，越多的人拒绝参与承担费用，实践经验的产出也就越少。人们越是依赖于别人的贡献和付出，整个社区的贡献就变得越少，能够合理涵盖相关成本的概率也就越低。实践经验和实体商品是完全不同的。实践经验并不会因为被使用而损耗，它反而具有累积效应，经过反复使用价值反而会越来越高。哈丁害怕公共资源会导致过度使用，因而造成“悲剧”，但就实践经验而言，过度使用的情况是无须顾虑的。知识不会因为使用而贬值，反而在不断使用中累积增值。知识成为公共资源并不会变成一出“公地悲剧”，反而可能成为卡罗尔·罗斯（Carol Rose）所描述的“公地喜剧”。 。。。more
Max Herberg
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Interesting take on the future impact of technology on professions with a lot of different use cases - my only gripe is that it becomes repetitive。
Gwen
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Reading this， I thought it must've been published even earlier than it actually was， because it seems really dated。 The things discussed here might be as revolutionary as the authors seem to think if the reader was born before 1960， but anyone who had an email address before they finished their education will be saying "duh" the whole time。 Reading this， I thought it must've been published even earlier than it actually was， because it seems really dated。 The things discussed here might be as revolutionary as the authors seem to think if the reader was born before 1960， but anyone who had an email address before they finished their education will be saying "duh" the whole time。 。。。more
Jack
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No meat here。 This book just gives a recap of a lot of commonly known opinions about how work will change。 Nothing novel here。 Actually， overall the book was pretty boring。 I slogged through to the end hoping for some insight， but it just wasn’t there。 I was very disappointed that I spent money on this drivel。
André Pinto
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